Your predictions - Sought after knives in 10 years

[hudsonhawk]

I recently had to make a tough decision. I got an unexpected $200 and immediately knew it would go towards a new Spydie. I have already made more purchases this year than I planned simply because this has been a fantastic year for Spyderco designs. Because of this, I decided to spend this $200 on something to tuck away in the safe for possible future collecting.

I have a short list of knives that have not been made in years that I would love to find but they command high prices on the secondary market (like the Poliwog and Spyderench). So this got me thinking; what do you think you could buy today (or maybe was recently discontinued) that would the the ATR or Poliwog in another 10 years? For me, I'm betting my $200 on the Tuff.

I'm curious what the collective knowledge of the forum thinks.

[farnorthdan]

I'd save it until one of the PM2 exclusives drop, guaranteed to appreciate.

[hudsonhawk]

I'd save it until one of the PM2 exclusives drop, guaranteed to appreciate.

Dan,

I've definitely thought about that. I will definitely jump on the next PM2 sprint or exclusive runs that come out.

[SpyderNut]

That's a good question, really. In fact, it is fun (and often difficult) trying to predict which models will be the "holy grails" of tomorrow. To answer your question, I think the Tuff is a viable option. Many of the "dark horse" designs seem to only gain in popularity after being discontinued. Case in point, consider the Khukuri and Barong. Both could be had for around $90 back in the day. Then, both were discontinued and suddenly, a slightly used Khukuri is going for $350. Crazy! :) I'd personally think that the Leafstorm will be a sought-after model as will the Schemmp Frontier. Regardless, it will be fun to come back five years from now and see which models are super crazy popular.

[hudsonhawk]

I agree with you on the "dark horses". Aside from the obvious rare options with runs that only have a few hundred knives in them, odd-ball designs that people passed over as too "strange" are the ones that get the cult following down the road. I think that's exactly what happened with the Poliwog (and exactly the reason I want one still). That's my thinking with the Tuff. It is just strange enough of a design that it turned plenty of folks off...for now

[SG89]

I want a Tuff so bad. I would also like a Rock Lobster. I bet maybe when the Roc comes out it might be a collectors item after its discontinued. Interesting design.

[farnorthdan]

Another I just thought of is the Chokwe, kind of a dark horse but absolutely over looked by many, it is disco'd but still available at a reasonable price and really is a great piece, super thin and unobtrusive in the pocket yet fits the hand perfect.

[Liquid Cobra]

I think one of the reasons a knife becomes highly sought after once it's gone is the gap that is created when it is discontinued. If Spyderco doesn't release a similar knife that fits a similar role the discontinued knife becomes a collectors piece because there's nothing else like it.

Spyderhawk - no large hawkbill blades being made anymore
Dodo/Poliwog - no funky little folders with interesting locks being made anymore
Anything with a compression lock - Not enough knives being made with compression locks
Bob Lum Tanto - No (normal looking, no the double bevel/battlestation) tanto blades being made anymore
Caly Jr - No fish scale knives being made anymore!
G10 UKPK - No G10 slipit designs being made anymore
ATR - No integral Compression Lock knives with sweet holes being made anymore

And the list goes on. Once something similar comes back into the line prices seem to go down on some of these. I've noticed huge price drops in PM2 sprints on the secondary market ever since the new M4/CF/jade g10 exclusives were announced. No surprise really.

My $0.02

I could see the Szabo being highly sought after one day when they're discontinued.

[swigert]

I think the Tuff could definitely got the bill. I also think the g10 vg10 Caly 3.5 will be one of those knives.

Hmmmmm I could see the Schempp Bowie going that way also.

[swigert]

BBS domino. Look what their Para 2 goes for.

[Brock O Lee]

I think one of the reasons a knife becomes highly sought after once it's gone is the gap that is created when it is discontinued. If Spyderco doesn't release a similar knife that fits a similar role the discontinued knife becomes a collectors piece because there's nothing else like it.

Good point LC... I think the Tuff falls in this category, and should be a good call...

It has its criticisms, but if you consider the positives I am sure it would remain a sought after model (by some) for years to come. Things like rock solid build, flawless Taiwan fit and finish, high quality materials including CPM-3V which is uncommon for folders, eccentric but useful design.

I think it failed to sell well as a user because it played in a niche where people would generally buy a small fixed blade at less than 50% of the cost.

I guess the CF M4 Para 2 would be another candidate, as long as Knifeworks limits the numbers...

[Philo Beddoe]

[demoncase]

Future Collector appeal of anything- be they knives or otherwise- is tough to judge. Too many variables- especially the 'rabid Pokemon style' collector who must have all the variants of one model (etc) who will pay anything to do so and skews the 'value' of the item.

My Better Half has to regularly tell people about the dangers of 'investing' in the future collectable value of jewellery- While it's true the price generally appreciates with the scrap value of the gold/silver/whatever based on the current metals market, that's not the same kind of appreciation that many people expect for high value jewellery.
Victorian jewellery and dress-brooches used to sell for trade-scrap value on the materials in the late 80s and 90s- your talking rare star sapphires on platinum for a couple of hundred £...Now the market has 'taken off' and collectors want them again, the price has sky-rocketed

Sometimes someone finds a shedful of a certain item and floods the market.
I recall selling M67 short pouches from the Vietnam War for £30 a pop for battered ones and £80 for a matched, mint, pair in the early 2000s as they could not be found for love nor money in Europe.
Then in about 2010 some QM stores somewhere in Germany must've found a couple of thousand of them on a shelf and sold them to a militaria store who put them on E-bay at £12 each shipped and that was that.

(Watch Antiques Roadshow from the UK for good reference on this subject)

Further- when you consider the concept of 'collector's motorbikes'- it's generally those big, expensive, machines that your younger self lusted after but could never afford at the time AND/OR that one smaller model that you loved with all your heart and want to see as part of your life again. In both these cases, finding one that's mint and unmolested is often impossible and requires much refurbishment.

So: back to the point in hand- I shall apply a broad-brush.

Models that were too expensive to buy for someone at 18 they can now afford at 28 (better job, more disposable income and so on) but have been discontinued at some point in the intervening time will probably be the 'popular collector's models- The Tuff, the Szabo, the Farid K2, the Slyz Bowie, Stepped Ti Chapparal (etc) from today's range are likely to be popular and hard to find in future.

Any model with sprint runs, dealer exclusives and variants is going to remain collectable- so Military, Police and PM2 as well as the Delica and Endura.
What will make these harder to find is they are often bought as users- so finding mint ones in box will become tough.
Linked to this will be anything with a 'premium' variation- like the titanium UKPK and fluted Ti Natives and Militaries- those will be tough to find

After that- well, it's a haze.

[The Deacon]

I think it's totally impossible to predict what will appreciate significantly over the years. Better to buy a knife as a tool you'll enjoy using, or as a miniature "sculpture" you'll get pleasure from viewing, than to purchase one as an investment.

[demoncase]

I think it's totally impossible to predict what will appreciate significantly over the years. Better to buy a knife as a tool you'll enjoy using, or as a miniature "sculpture" you'll get pleasure from viewing, than to purchase one as an investment.

As always, far more succinct that me- but I 100% agree.

Buy to your taste today. Let tomorrow's collectability worry about itself. :)

[Donut]

I think in 10 years, steel will evolve so much that the knives we're carrying today will be almost useless.

Well, I'm hoping at least. :)

[Evil D]

Any sprint
Rubicon
Many of the colabs coming out

One thing to consider is what the future holds as far as new models. Newer knives sometimes make older ones all but obsolete and I think that really drives down interest. An example would be the older Paramilitary sprints. They may still fetch a decent price but not anywhere near what Para 2 sprints are, and that has everything to do with the model and probably less to do with materials being used. Some knives seem to just be under the radar and nobody cares until you tell them they can't buy them anymore. An example here could be something like the Ulize or Captain, maybe even the Junior. I don't even recall anyone posting about them until they were a calendar contest prize, and after that the topics fizzled out again. The same goes for the Rock Lobster, nobody (including me) showed any interest until people started modding the handle and then everyone wanted one. Guessing the next trendy knife like that is the million dollar question.

[dubya3]

I recently had to make a tough decision. I got an unexpected $200 and immediately knew it would go towards a new Spydie. I have already made more purchases this year than I planned simply because this has been a fantastic year for Spyderco designs. Because of this, I decided to spend this $200 on something to tuck away in the safe for possible future collecting.

I have a short list of knives that have not been made in years that I would love to find but they command high prices on the secondary market (like the Poliwog and Spyderench). So this got me thinking; what do you think you could buy today (or maybe was recently discontinued) that would the the ATR or Poliwog in another 10 years? For me, I'm betting my $200 on the Tuff.

I'm curious what the collective knowledge of the forum thinks.

There is a ATR for sale on one of the Facebook spyderco trading pages for $200

[paladin]

While I agree with Paul that a knife is primarily a tool which can also be viewed as an object d'art-- they are definitely little investments also because you are paying $ for something that has value inherent in it's utility & design...

Most of which will probably lose value either with use or the ubiquitous " new car just driven off lot" depreciation :eek: ...

But-- but some surely appreciate :D ....

IMHO, I think the "uniqueness" factor of certain Spyderco's that Liquid Cobra hinted at would be a fairly reliable indicator that would tend to point toward the "appreciate" side of the ledger, especially if you compound into your equation the fact that a lot of the unique models, like the Poliwog, Chokwe, et. al. are deeply discounted at the end of their life cycles due to low sales ...heck,I snagged a BNIB Chokwe for $65 ...how could that go anywhere but up? :confused:

I would add the Ti Fluted Natives & Millies... :)

No other company is making anything like em... :spyder:

good thread

[bearfacedkiller]

I am not sure how many of the Sage4s they sold so that may become an elusive knife in the near future. The Des Horn or the Chockwe could both also prove elusive and may go up in value. It seems as though the Para2 sprint craze is mellowing out and it may stay that way with S110V and M4 coming soon. There have just been so many sprints done in some models. Either way, sprints are always a good investment. I would also guess that anything from the HAP40 or Super Gold runs coming up would be a safe bet.

I don't buy knives to collect but I tend to buy mostly sprints and they always at least hold their value.