Waxing and Waning of the Knife Market

[Spyderman91]

Good morning Spyderheads,

Hope everything is going well with you all this midweek, and if not there is still plenty of time before the weekend!

My reasons for starting this thread are to discuss the current conditions of the knife market, and where we are headed.
When I plunged myself into Spyderco and the world of knives in 2017 the market seemed red hot. Certain models like the Norseman were in high demand and low supply. Even the Slysz bowie craze was at it's height with discontinued knives being sold for 800 dollars!

Now, it seems like demand is mixed on "prized", or expensive models and supply of regular models such as the pm2 are very low. I know many businesses were effected by the unprecedented pandemic and we are still dealing with the fallout. I guess initially I really didn't notice any change until it was blatantly apparent. Have you all noticed similar trends in the market, I am curious to hear your guy's experience!

[bearfacedkiller]

I think production knives are in short supply because of the pandemic.

I think high end knives like customs and mid techs have less demand because the market is flooded.

The explosion of high end Chinese knives has had an impact as well.

[DFD04]

Take this info/opinion as a guy sitting in the cheap seats as user vs a collector (probably 3:1 users to collecting).

I don’t think the knife (or gun, for that matter) market has cooled one degree. I think you’re seeing multiple exclusives coming out at nearly the same time—and with social media folks are targeting one over the other. The example of the Blade Hq Smock comes to mind vs the lime PM2. I think also, there may be a bit of exhaustion of the PM2 model.

The Shaman exclusives are still red hot, and so are many of the other models that don’t usually get run. Im guessing the DLT Tuff will be gone pretty soon, but the $315 price point is probably causing it to hang on a bit. I think an indicator of the waning of the market is when we see an abundance of stock sitting and knives on big sale. We’ve heard that Spyderco is planning on expanding, and they are curtailing exclusives a bit to resupply the base models. That’s a sign of a growing segment of the market.

I see the trend keeping up, honestly. Seems like anyone in the survival/defense/recreational markets are doing quite well these days.

I’ll add one caveat, tho…If raw materials are impossible to get or become too expensive, that may cool things a hair based on scarcity and then perhaps price. But I would bet the REC Shaman or the Cutlery Pumpkin Shaman would have sold out in mins vs seconds if they increased price by half.

Anyways…my £.02.

[wrdwrght]

Can you, OP, be more specific, or are you expressing a vague feeling?

[Bolster]

When I plunged myself into Spyderco and the world of knives in 2017 the market seemed red hot.

I'm curious, how are we judging how "hot" the knife marketplace is? Are there overall sales numbers for the category <knives> that show more and less interest over time? If so, can you please post the source you're referring to?

This for KITCHEN knives:
https://www.grandviewresearch.com/indus ... ves-market
...which implies a U.S. trend of 1.4% growth per year, 2019 to 2025. The U.S. population itself is growing at .6% per year, so knives are selling a little faster than can be explained by just population growth...but hardly red-hot...

This source says global growth for kitchen knives estimated at 7%/5yr = 1.4%, and globally humans grow around 1% per year, so that's 0.4% growth on top of population...
https://www.wboc.com/story/44340079/con ... lysis-with

This source has a global forecast of 4.9%/5= <1% growth for cooking knives per year...
https://www.marketwatch.com/press-relea ... 2021-05-06

These must be pay for view:
https://www.americanrodeo.com/story/437 ... ecast-2027

https://www.marketwatch.com/press-relea ... 19?tesla=y

I dunno about you, but I start to think of a market as "hot" around 10% growth per year...