Will the European Union unravel?

[Sequimite]

I've been predicting for the last year that the financial crisis in Europe could cause a collapse in the value of the Euro. With Greece now on the verge of leaving the Union, what will happen to Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland? In France especially, dissatisfaction with Germany essentially setting the continent's economic policy is growing. I don't know how they can keep the lid on much longer and am starting to think it is likely that the melt down will happen before the US election.

Saving the EU will cause a currency devaluation IMO and my past thinking was predicated on the notion that the EU would be saved. That theory is getting less and less likely. We may be seeing the beginning of the end of the EU and the emergence of a smaller union of countries as German satellites.

http://www.economist.com/node/21554549

[The Student]

This is something that has caught my attention and am quite interested in but my knowledge and ability to grasp all of the information is over my head. I never studied much in the economic arena in my time at college, could you explain what you mean by countries becoming German satellites. I understand many of the problems that face the euro but what would be the aftermath of something like the euro failing, what would that mean for someone in the states if countries did become "German satellites". Please forgive my ignorance.

[Sequimite]

This is something that has caught my attention and am quite interested in but my knowledge and ability to grasp all of the information is over my head. I never studied much in the economic arena in my time at college, could you explain what you mean by countries becoming German satellites. I understand many of the problems that face the euro but what would be the aftermath of something like the euro failing, what would that mean for someone in the states if countries did become "German satellites". Please forgive my ignorance.

I studied economics in college and have read many of the classic works but I'm way out of my depths as well. The Euro might go up in value if a reduced EU makes it practically a German currency.

Satellite, is a popular cold war term for a country that is economically and militarily dependent on a larger country. Right now in Europe Germany has by far the strongest economy. In a break up even more so.

The Economist, which I posted a link to, is one of the best sources.

[The Student]

Ah ok thank you for the explanation. It is an interesting scenario to say the least.

[Mr_Moe]

I studied economics in college and have read many of the classic works but I'm way out of my depths as well. The Euro might go up in value if a reduced EU makes it practically a German currency.

Satellite, is a popular cold war term for a country that is economically and militarily dependent on a larger country. Right now in Europe Germany has by far the strongest economy. In a break up even more so.

The Economist, which I posted a link to, is one of the best sources.

Germany has become very dependent on exports, that's the "motor" of our economy. When that ceases things will get far more ugly for Germany. The media and our Politicians make it seem that the German economy is doing extremely well and nothing can happen, that the crisis has been mastered. At the same time fellow EU nations' economies are becoming too damaged to import German goods, so little by little trade partners are lost.
To me it's quite worriesome to watch how openly dominant the German leadership has become. It never ended well in the past whenever leaders walked down that path. There's already too much resentment towards Germans and you could amost say too much propaganda here against southern Europeans.

[SolidState]

We're basically seeing the re-emergence of planned economies and schooling in Germany, and the failure in most of the rest of the western world. I think it is wonderful that you recognize the implications of satellite societies being created via currency.

It is too bad that we Americans aren't paying attention to why Germany isn't losing while the rest of us are.

[Pinetreebbs]

...It is too bad that we Americans aren't paying attention to why Germany isn't losing while the rest of us are.

+1

I expect to heat that the Chinese have opened a Title-Loan shop in Washington DC to help us borrow our way to prosperity.

[ChrisR]

Read an interesting article the other day explaining that Germany actually likes being in a fairly weak Euro because if they had their own currency it would be valued far higher and that would make their exports more expensive and less in demand.

I have been wondering why all of the Euro countries are so keen for Greece to stay in the Euro - until I read an interesting article today on the BBC website. Basically, at the moment nobody knows whether a country can leave or not, so Euro money is being held across the different Euro-zone banks. But if Greece leaves then no investor in any country/business in the world will risk holding Euros in a country that might also leave - like Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Italy etc. This will leave those countries haemorrhaging money and even less able to fund their failing economies. The only thing that could be done would be for the surviving Euro countries (via the ECB) to pour yet more money into them ... and that is looking less and less likely to happen. If Greece does go - and I think it must because their population will revolt if they have 25 more years of pain like they are having - then it could just start a chain reaction that leaves a handful of countries still in the Euro.

[Cscoop]

The EU and it's parasite governments/banks will be supported until Obama wins election in November. Then there will be an economic crisis that many will not survive.
The truth is brutal.

[The Mastiff]

The EU and it's parasite governments/banks will be supported until Obama wins election in November. Then there will be an economic crisis that many will not survive.
The truth is brutal.

And when he doesn't win?

I'd say German satelite countries is a bit dramatic. I do expect to see the Euro reborn as another currency in the new gathering of nations that replaces the EU. A smaller, more "european" EU.

It's still too early to see the outcome as the whole world is facing a crisis. Even the Germanys and yes, Chinas, not to mention the US.

[Cscoop]

Win or lose the EU will fall apart. It is falsley being held together to give him a better chance of winning.

[Sequimite]

Win or lose the EU will fall apart. It is falsley being held together to give him a better chance of winning.

I think the European leaders are too worried about their own jobs to form a conspiracy to effect the US election. Let's try not to wander into the prohibited topic of politics.

[Sequimite]

I'd say German satelite countries is a bit dramatic. I do expect to see the Euro reborn as another currency in the new gathering of nations that replaces the EU. A smaller, more "european" EU.

I think one of the big fissures in the EU is that many Europeans feel that their countries are already German satellite states. Within a reformed EU German power will be proportionately much greater.

[coonan]

It will not matter who is elected in november the same thing is going to happen in the EU no matter what . Will there be an election in november?and if so and Barry setaro I mean BHO.Wins what will happen before he takes the oath of office? Does any one remember the first country to fail.and what happened .They are doing very well now.They gave their minister of finance 48 hours to get out of the country.Then they told the big EU banks that they were not going to pay them because it was not their debt to pay. The banksters said oh ya our mistake and not another word about it.Has the laim stream press ever brought up this story and the why. ICELAND When the EU was started 10 years ago there was no plan as to what to do in a case like this. Why ???

[Sequimite]

When the EU was started 10 years ago there was no plan as to what to do in a case like this. Why ???

Our founding fathers in their infallible wisdom created a plan of government for the US. It was the Articles of Confederation and was such a dismal failure that everyone agreed to further compromises so that the central government would be strong enough for the nation to function. George Washington chaired the creation of the Constitution and, being the taciturn fellow he was, did not say, "I told you so."

The EU made an agreement that couldn't work because nations were unwilling to cede the power to enforce the agreement. I suppose many hoped that in time they would make the same progression that the US did.

[Mr_Moe]

...The EU made an agreement that couldn't work because nations were unwilling to cede the power to enforce the agreement. I suppose many hoped that in time they would make the same progression that the US did.

The EU has become a bureaucratic monster. Considering what laws have been pushed by the EU commission lately, working behind closed doors most often and under lobbyist influence, the thought of member nations, or rather the people ceding more power to the EU is quite scary. Many people are pretty fed up with the EU, not all for the right reasons. Unfortunately some movements use this frustration to appeal to nationalistic tendencies telling people the EU is disadvantageous. Should the EU fall apart, hopefully we won't be at each others throats again. I used to believe that people are reasonable and have progressed in the past decades, but I'm not so sure anymore. Despite the disadvantages and obvious flaws of the EU's system it has been a factor to keep things civilized in Europe. Let's hope that the European idea will remain regardless of what happens.

[Sequimite]

The EU has become a bureaucratic monster. Considering what laws have been pushed by the EU commission lately, working behind closed doors most often and under lobbyist influence, the thought of member nations, or rather the people ceding more power to the EU is quite scary. Many people are pretty fed up with the EU, not all for the right reasons. Unfortunately some movements use this frustration to appeal to nationalistic tendencies telling people the EU is disadvantageous. Should the EU fall apart, hopefully we won't be at each others throats again. I used to believe that people are reasonable and have progressed in the past decades, but I'm not so sure anymore. Despite the disadvantages and obvious flaws of the EU's system it has been a factor to keep things civilized in Europe. Let's hope that the European idea will remain regardless of what happens.

The EU makes economic sense, but hasn't so far made political sense. I've always wondered if the history of frequent warfare in Europe was an unstated but significant reason for attempting the union.

Trying to fix the political problem in the middle of a crisis certainly may backfire and make the dissolution of the EU more likely. While the US Constitutional Congress had a mess on its hands, it was not meeting in the midst of an existential crisis. Perhaps more important, George Washington had the confidence of the American people. No European leader has anything approaching the political capital of Washington.

[wsdavies]

I think it's going to fall apart..you're going to see the rise of nationalism..some countries headed hard left and some hard right. It's not gonna be a pretty situation in these coming years.

[The Mastiff]

I think one of the big fissures in the EU is that many Europeans feel that their countries are already German satellite states.

I've always wondered if the history of frequent warfare in Europe was an unstated but significant reason for attempting the union.

I read in an article on the EU's problem's that one of the reasons for the EU was to help control and keep a lid on Germany in a European way recognizing mot only trade advantages with it, but the lessening of US power and US refocusing to pacific based threat axis. http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/01/1...ary-focus.html

I didn't sleep last night so my typing and thought process is all over the place but I believe Sequimite is on to some basic truths.

Joe

[ChrisR]

Germany is still reeling from the cost of reunification with the East ... there is very little sentiment in the voting public to spend yet more billions to shore up a country which is perceived to be riddled with corruption. That said, German industry does well from having weak countries in the Euro (perhaps just not so many weak economies) because it keeps their exports competitively priced. But I am guessing that Greece, along with Spain & Portugal, will go because the money markets are like jackals that have seen a wounded animal and they are circling waiting for it to collapse. If the ECB pours yet more money into their economies it will be just throwing good money after bad and the only people that will win are the speculators.